Brent: US crude inventories may increase again _31/08/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 48.10. Stop-Loss 48.60. Take-Profit 47.60, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00

Buy Stop 48.70. Stop-Loss 48.10. Take-Profit 50.00, 50.70, 51.00


Technical analysis

With the opening of today's trading day, the price is reduced, tending to the nearest support level 47.60 (EMA50 on the daily and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

However, the key support level passes through the mark of 46.20 (Fibonacci 50.0% retracement level to decrease with the level of 65.30 to lows near the 2016 mark of 27.05, and the line moving averages EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

In case of breakdown of the price level of 46.20 will return to the downward trend that began in June. The latest "borders" Constraining the fall in oil prices, then become support levels are 43.65, 41.70 (38.2% Fibonacci level and the lows of July / August).

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and 4-hour charts deployed on short positions.

Alternative scenario associated with the weak labor market data in the US, published in Friday, that will significantly reduce the probability of increasing rates in the US in September.

If US oil inventories will be reduced, and the number of drilling rigs in the United States, too, it is the second most significant factor in favor of the resumption of growth in oil prices and the development of alternative scenario associated with a return to the levels of 50.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), 50.00 ( psychological level).

However, in any case, for the resumption of purchases is desirable to wait for a turn indicator OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts on long positions.

 Support levels: 47.60, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00

Resistance levels: 50.00, 50.70, 51.00


Overview and Dynamics

Today at 14:30 (GMT) US Department of Energy publishes the official weekly report on US oil storages and petroleum products. As the average analysts say the oil market, commercial oil reserves in the vaults of the country in the week 20 - 26 August rose by 1.2 million barrels (previous increase of 2.501 million barrels). As reported yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API), increase in commercial stocks of crude oil last week in the US amounted to 942,000 barrels. At the same time gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 3 million barrels.

Thus, US crude stocks, which are significantly above the level of 500 million barrels of crude oil over the past 80 years, the rise again.

This is particularly conducive to the growth in the number of active US oil drilling rigs. Their number today is 406 units. US domestic oil production is steadily increasing, which could lead to a subsequent significant fall in prices.

It offers the world's oil still exceeds demand. Oil market analysts doubt the positive outcome of the upcoming OPEC meeting in September, Algeria.

At the same time, the US dollar is trading at the highest level for the last three weeks. The Fed may raise interest rates in September, signaled as the representatives of the US central bank held in Jackson Hole conference.

Janet Yellen and her deputy, Stanley Fischer, said that the economy is strong enough to make this year could raise interest rates. The situation is raising prices of commodities bets, including oil, are reduced.