EUR/USD: Negative dynamics prevails _29/06/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1050. Stop-Loss 1.1110. Targets 1.1000, 1.0915, 1.0870, 1.0800

Buy Stop 1.1120. Stop-Loss 1.1080. Targets 1.1200, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485, 1.1500


Technical analysis

The EUR / USD is very close to the resistance level 1.1100 (September and May lows), through which the lower line of the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit near the level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the last wave decline from the highs of 2014, EMA144 on the weekly chart).

In the case of the breakdown level of 1.1100 the pair EUR / USD will go deep into the rising channel on the daily chart with the immediate goal of 1.1200 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario is a return of negative dynamics and decreased within the newly formed downtrend channel on the daily chart with the lower boundary near the recent June lows at around 1.0915.

For the resumption of sales, in this case, it is better to wait for a turn indicator OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart on short positions. On the daily, weekly, monthly charts indicators are located on the side of the sellers.

However, while the process of division of the UK and the EU will not end, the euro will remain under pressure.

Support levels: 1.1065, 1.1000, 1.0915, 1.0750

Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1200, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485, 1.1535


Overview and Dynamics

On Tuesday, the European Parliament held an extraordinary plenary session to discuss the outcome of the referendum in the UK and to assess its implications for the European Union.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that previously took place in the EU country will not automatically get the same access to the single market, which had, as a member of the unit. No special conditions granted to the UK will not be. What is happening in the EU's "divorce" process negatively affects the quotations pound and the euro.

According to ECB President Mario Draghi is due to the UK decision to withdraw from the EU for three years, economic growth in the region may be 0.5% lower than it could be, and the growth of the euro area economy over the next three years, will slow to 0.3 % -0.5%.

Now for the ECB to re-aggravated the problem of the growth of the euro area economy and the acceleration of inflation, and this is due to the expansion of QE programs in the Eurozone and a possible further reduction in interest rates.

On how active will the ECB steps in this direction will depend on the acceleration of the economic recovery and the euro area stock market.

On the market volatility continues, as investors try to make sense of Britain's decision to withdraw from the EU.

The continuing uncertainty about the future of the UK and the EU, as well as newly voiced concerns at the Fed about the state of the world economy and a penchant for softer monetary policy in the US, including the pace of interest rate rises in the US, increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, yen and gold.

Fed Governor Jerome Powell noticed today that the decision of the UK to leave the EU has strengthened the risks for the fragile global economy, and hinted that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Against the background of the unfolding events in Europe and in the world, the euro will be under pressure in the short and medium term.

From the news today we are waiting for the publication of the US data, when the 12:30 (GMT) will be released inflation index for May (personal income / spending, personal consumption). At 14:00 it published one of the most important indicators of the state of the US real estate market - transaction is pending home sales (May). Positive US data will strengthen the dollar and vice versa.