EUR/USD: Price updates April highs _02/05/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1440. Stop-Loss 1.1480. Targets 1.1380, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1165

Buy Stop 1.1510. Stop-Loss 1.1480. Targets 1.1615, 1.1700, 1.1900


Technical analysis

Trading in the Asian session took place against a background of low activity of traders. Since the beginning of the European session the EUR / USD continues to trade in a narrow range just above the level reached on the eve of 1.1460, while remaining within the rising channel on the daily and weekly charts near the upper limit of the level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the charts with 4 hours a month on are on the side of buyers. If the price above the level of 1.1485 (highs October 2015) is possible further growth of the pair to levels of 1.1615, 1.1700, 1.1785 (38.2% Fibonacci level), 1.1900 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

The reverse scenario is a return to the level of 1.1285 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart, the level of 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the last wave decline from the highs of 2014, the lower boundary of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Fixing prices below 1.1165 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will return the EUR / USD pair in the downtrend.

Support levels: 1.1380, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1165, 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1485, 1.1615, 1.1700


Overview and Dynamics

The price index for personal consumption expenditures in the US rose in March by 0.1% (versus growth of 0.2% in February). Earlier on Thursday also went weak preliminary data on GDP for the first quarter in annual terms (0.5% vs. 0.7% and 1.4% in the previous quarter). Weak economic data led to lower expectations about rising interest rates in the US in June, which caused the weakening of the dollar on Friday. Also increased demand for gold troy ounce which has risen by almost 2.0% to 1299.00 dollar, which was the highest value since January 2015.

Earlier release of macroeconomic data from the US last Friday, the euro was supported even in the European session on evidence of strengthening economic growth in the euro zone and reducing unemployment. For example, preliminary data showed GDP growth in the first quarter by 0.6% (vs. + 0.4% and growth of 0.3% in the previous period). The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% in March (10.2% vs. 10.3% and 10.4% in the previous month). Then, released at the beginning of the US session weak macroeconomic data from the United States, given in EUR / USD additional upward momentum.

The EUR / USD rose sharply, returning to the previously reached in April year highs near the 1.1460 mark.

If April's index of purchasing managers in the United States from the ISM, which will be released today at 14.00 (GMT) will be weak, the growth of the EUR / USD today can be continued. In this case, a break above 1.1485 level (October 2015 highs) may send the pair to levels close to the level of 1.1700.