EUR/USD: trading week closed down _25/03/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1140. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Targets 1.1115, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.0870, 1.0750

Buy Stop 1.1225. Stop-Loss 1.1175. Targets 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1700


Technical analysis

On the hourly chart the EUR / USD has broken through the trend line passing through the 1.1185 mark (EMA200) and continues to decline.

On the 4-hour and daily chart indicators OsMA and Stochastic turned into short positions. Breakdown of the lower boundary of the rising channel on 4-hour chart, which is currently the pair EUR / USD, will send it to the nearest support levels 1.1115 (EMA144 on 4-hour chart), 1.1100.

Nearest target 1.1100 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1.1050 (EMA144 on the daily chart) can be achieved within 1 week.

Return above resistance level 1.1285 (Fibonacci correctional level of 23.6% to the last wave decline from 2014 highs), 1.1340 (highs in February and March) will cancel the script at reducing and send EUR / USD pair to levels of 1.1700, 1.1785 (Fibonacci level 38, 2%), 1.1900 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 1.1115, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0870, 1.0750

Resistance levels: 1.1185, 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1375, 1.1450


Overview and Dynamics

The threat of new terrorist attacks in Belgium is putting pressure on the pair EUR / USD, as well as European stock indices. Since Tuesday, when bombings in Brussels, the EUR / USD has lost more than 80 points to date. Reducing the pair has continued for the seventh day in a row.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to strengthen the foreign exchange market today, getting support from a resurgent market expectations about the probability of the Fed tightening policy in April. On the possibility of such a solution has recently signaled some leaders of the US central bank. So, the president of the Federal Reserve, St. Louis James Bullard said in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, that there were "arguments in favor of raising the key interest rate in April." Bullard also noted that the data in the period from December to March, consistent with the Fed's expectations. If the macroeconomic data from the United States, will continue to meet the Fed's forecasts, the likelihood of tighter monetary policy in April, will be real.

From the news today should pay attention to US data, go to 12:30 (GMT), including the annual GDP data for the 4th quarter (final release), as well as indices the cost of private consumption in Q4. If you deviate from the predicted values ​​may be sharp price movements in the dollar pairs, including in a pair of EUR / USD, although the changes to the previous data is not expected.

Volatility in the news release period can be greatly strengthened by a thin market. However, trading volumes will be small because on the eve of Catholic Easter, and in connection with the Good Friday today in Europe and the US stock exchanges are closed.