NZD / USD: near the strong resistance level _26/02/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 0.6720. Stop-Loss 0.6770. Take-Profit 0.6685, 0.6625, 0.6600, 0.6585, 0.6525, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6370, 0.6300, 0.6230

Buy Stop 0.6790. Stop-Loss 0.6750. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6900, 0.7200



Technical analysis

If we consider the current consolidation of the pair as a corrective to the last wave decline from the level of 0.8820, which began in October 2014, to the level of 0.6260 (2015 lows), then prices can rise even to the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the weekly and daily charts speak in favor of such an increase. However, on the 4-hour chart indicators are starting to turn around on short positions, and on the daily chart pair NZD / USD is very close to the resistance level 0.6775 (EMA200).

Break of 0.6685 levels (EMA144 and the upper limit of the downward channel on the daily chart), 0.6625 (EMA50 on the daily and EMA200, EMA144 on 4-hour chart) returns a pair in the downtrend in the framework of the declining channel on the daily chart with the lower boundary near the level of 0.6200.

Otherwise, the breakdown level of 0.6860 will trigger the growth to the levels of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 0.7400 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7550 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci level of 50%), but only with the support of the fundamental factors, such as the rise in oil and commodity prices, the growth of world stock indices and global economic recovery, the suspension of the program of monetary tightening in the United States.


Overview and Dynamics

Status of New Zealand's economy, export-oriented, is gradually improving. On this according to data presented yesterday on the New Zealand trade balance for January (8.0 million New Zealand dollars against a deficit forecast of growth by 245.5 million). Exports thus grew by 3.9 billion New Zealand dollars against the forecast of 3.74 billion and 4.43 billion on growth in the previous month.

 Positive dynamics of the global stock indices and rising oil and commodity prices have allowed the pair NZD / USD strengthened significantly in recent years.

Doubts about the next increase interest rates in the US in March, expressed in statements by the Fed this week, gave additional upward momentum of the pair NZD / USD.

Trading on the global financial markets against the backdrop of a meeting today of representatives of Big Twenty in Shanghai, the main themes of which will be to discuss the situation of slower growth the Chinese and world economy, the dynamics of interest rates, falling oil prices and commodity prices, and a reduction in world trade.

Incentive measures taken in China also improved investor sentiment towards riskier assets and commodity currencies, including to the New Zealand dollar, as China is the largest trading partner of New Zealand.

From the news today, we are waiting for US data, leaving the block from 13:30 to 18:00 (GMT).

Positive data (the second estimate of US GDP for the 4th quarter with a forecast growth of 0.4% in addition to an increase of 0.7% in the previous quarter, the balance of trade in goods in January, and inflation indices - domestic prices of acquisitions in the 4th quarter, personal spending in January, the consumer confidence index from Reuters / Michigan for February (forecast to rise to 91.0 against 90.7 in January index) will strengthen the US dollar in the market, including in the pair NZD / USD.