Brent: Reports API and the US Department of Energy may be different _08/09/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 48.40. Stop-Loss 48.90. Take-Profit 47.60, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00

Buy Stop 49.10. Stop-Loss 48.60. Take-Profit 50.00, 50.70, 51.00


Technical analysis

In early September, the price of Brent crude rebounded from the key support level of 46.20 (Fibonacci level of 50.0% correction to decrease with the level of 65.30 to lows in 2016 near the mark of 27.05, and the line moving averages EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at the weak performance NFPR in USA. The price is also higher than the other short-term strong support level of 47.60 (EAM50 on the daily chart and EMA144 on 4-hour chart).

Optimistic expectations of a positive outcome of the OPEC meeting in September in Algeria can not be justified. Offer the oil is only growing in the world, while remaining overweight.

At 15:00 (GMT) will be published weekly data on US oil and petroleum products. If stocks rise, contrary to yesterday's API report, it will negatively affect the oil prices. Decrease in stocks (as reported in API at 12.08 million barrels) already appear accommodated in price. In any case, further growth if it takes place, is less active than yesterday. Most likely two options: either a slight increase, to levels around 49.00, 49.50 or greater decline and return to the support level of 47.60. The second option may occur as on the background of the important events of the fundamental nature of the present day, the ECB's decision on interest rates, and after the publication of the official report of the US Department of Energy (15:00 GMT).

 OsMA and Stochastic indicators at different time intervals show a mixed picture. On the daily chart indicators turned on long positions, on the weekly chart - short. It is worth paying attention to 4-schasovoy schedule. Stochastic is "overbought", and the price is at the upper boundary of the descending channel, which means just passes near the key support level of 46.20.

In case of breakdown of the price level of 46.20 will return to the downward trend that began in June. The latest "borders" Constraining the fall in oil prices, then become support levels are 43.65, 41.70 (38.2% Fibonacci level and the lows of July / August).

Height above the levels of 50.00, 50.70 is unlikely. Everything will be clear after the OPEC meeting in late September. A positive outcome of the expectations of it is weakening.

Support levels: 47.60, 46.20, 45.65, 43.65, 41.70, 41.00

Resistance Levels: 50.00, 50.70, 51.00


Overview and Dynamics

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday reported a sharp fall in US oil inventories, to 12.08 million barrels, which allowed the price of oil added almost $ 1.3. The November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange gained 1.3% in value to 48.61 dollars per barrel. Today, the price for Brent crude is trading in a narrow range close to yesterday's closing mark on the trading day 48.50.

Today (15:00 GMT) the US Department of Energy will publish its data on the change in US oil inventories last week. It is expected that inventories increased, contrary to yesterday's API report. It is possible that the price is already taken into account the yesterday's report on the fall of stocks, and the message from the Ministry of Energy with other data may reduce the price of oil reached a level close to the level of 48.50.

The US Department of Energy has lowered the forecast on oil prices in the country. It is expected that the spot price for WTI crude oil in 2017 will amount to 50.58 dollars per barrel, or $ 1 less than forecast last month. US oil supply will grow according Office, since the number of oil rigs and the number of wells increases highly. At the moment, the number of active drilling rigs in the US is 407. This report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States introduced the oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday. Only in the last three months, US companies have increased the number of drilling rigs in the unit 91, which is about 30% higher than the 9-month low reached in May. The productivity of wells in this is rising.

Also, as expected in the ministry, in the 4th quarter of this year, world oil supply is likely to increase more than expected, reaching 97.24 million barrels a day against the previous forecast of 97.09 million bpd. This forecast was presented to the US Department of Energy on Wednesday.

Also recently in the media it was reported that Iran is unlikely to support any agreement with OPEC to freeze production volume countries. At the beginning of the year, after the restrictions were lifted from Iran's oil exports in this country have said that they intend to reach the production level of 4 million barrels of oil per day. At the moment, the level of production in Iran is about 3.8 million barrels per day. Informal meeting of OPEC will be held later in September in Algeria. Despite the weakening of the dollar, rising oil prices has been limited because of doubt that in addition to Saudi Arabia and other major Russian oil-producing countries are unlikely to agree to limit its own oil production. Even in the case of an agreement to freeze the current levels of oil supply in the world it is still excessive. Oil prices since June did not manage to gain a foothold above the mark $ 50 per barrel of Brent crude oil.