NZD/USD: waiting for a decision on the rate _27/04/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​by-the market. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6835, 0.6790, 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6410, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6920. Stop-Loss 0.6880. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7240


Technical analysis

If today the RBNZ announced another interest rate cut or clearly favors a lowering rates on its next meeting in June, it is very likely that the pair NZD / USD breaks through the level 0.6860 (23.6% Fibonacci level of the correction to the global reduction of the pair from the level of 0.8800 which began in July 2014 and EMA50 on the weekly chart) and go to the nearest support level 0.6790 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

If the tone of the comments the RBNZ will be "pigeon", then the price will go up within the ascending channel towards recent highs and EMA200 monthly chart near the level of 0.7050 and further to the level 0.7240 (38.2% Fibonacci level) with the support of indicators and fundamental background that so far - on the side of the sellers.

On the 4-hour and daily chart indicators OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions.

Breakthrough price below 0.6790 will open the way to further decrease with the targets 0.6600, 0.6400.

Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6835, 0.6790, 0.6700, 0.6610

Resistance levels: 0.6910, 0.6980, 0.7050


Overview and Dynamics

The focus of the financial markets today is the US publication of the decisions of the central banks and New Zealand on the key interest rates.

If the Fed rate hike is not expected, the RBNZ can go to the next interest rate cut in New Zealand, although the probability of such a move is estimated at about 35%. At 21:00 (GMT) is scheduled publication RBNZ decision on the matter. Last month, the central bank unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate market, which caused a sharp decline in the New Zealand dollar on the currency market. More likely the RBNZ cut rates at its next meeting in June, and in today's accompanying statement will focus on the propensity for further policy easing. Currently, the annual inflation rate in the country is 0.4%, well below the target range of 1% -3%. In recent years, many of the world central banks lowering rates used as the main tool to mitigate the monetary policy in order to support the national economy and the acceleration of inflation. At the RBNZ still has "to maneuver". The key interest rate in New Zealand - one of the highest in the world and is 2.25%. However, the RBNZ may take such a step, if not today, then at the next meeting in June. According to the data presented today, the trade deficit of the country for the year amounted to 3.838 million New Zealand dollars, which was the largest deficit since April 2009. This positive balance of foreign trade of New Zealand in March decreased and amounted to 117 million New Zealand dollars (against the forecast of 405 million and 367 million in the previous month).

Before publication in the 18:00 (GMT) The Fed will announce its decision on interest rates in the US RBNZ decision on rates. A little later, at 18:30 Comments on this question will be given.

Therefore, when making trading decisions should be borne in mind that in the period from 18:00 to 21:00 (GMT) on the financial market volatility and the pair NZD / USD can be very high.