USD/CAD: the most important macroeconomic data on the US _08/07/2016

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop 1.3020. Stop-Loss 1.2980. Take-Profit 1.3085, 1.3100, 1.3185, 1.3300, 1.3400

Sell ​​Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2930, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2730, 1.2635, 1.2525, 1.2500


Technical analysis

As long as price is above 1.2930 level (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour, EMA50 on the daily chart), should be considered long positions in the pair USD / CAD with the immediate goal near the level of 1.3100.

In case of breakdown of 1.2930 level will be relevant short-term short positions with the targets at the 1.2845 support level, 1.2730, 1.2635.

Since the beginning of June, after in April the price reached a low of the year at the level of 1.2525, the pair USD / CAD is moving mostly in a range between the levels of 1.2635 (Fibonacci level 50% correction to the growth of the pair to the beginning of July 2014 and the level of 1.0650), and 1.3100 (EMA200, EMA144, the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

From the point of view of trade strategy on the Fibonacci levels is key levels. In the case of the breakdown of 1.2635 level increases the probability of changing the direction of a global trend with a pair of ascending to descending. Levels as 1.3100, 1.3680 (23.6% Fibonacci level) are important levels for the renewal or extension of long positions in the trend, which began July 2014.

Nevertheless, while still more preferred position in the background long declining oil prices.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the side of buyers.

If today's data on the US labor market will be strong, the price easily breaks through the resistance level of 1.3100 and go to the level of 1.3680 with the immediate short intermediate targets at the levels of resistance 1.3185, 1.3300.

If the data are weak, it will weaken the US dollar across the currency market.

 Support levels: 1.2930, 1.2880, 1.2845, 1.2730, 1.2635, 1.2525

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3185, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3680


Overview and Dynamics

After 15:00 published weekly data from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products storage facilities in the United States, oil prices fell sharply, losing a day more than 2.5 dollars per barrel.

Oil prices fell to a two-month low after data showed less significant than expected reduction of stocks of oil and oil products, including gasoline.

At the end of trading on the NYMEX oil has fallen in price by 4.8%. Spot price for Brent crude sank to a mark of 47.10. The Canadian dollar, remaining commodity currency, and responsive to the dynamics of the oil market fell yesterday after oil prices.

Canada is a net exporter of oil. Oil and gas sector is an important part of the economy of this country. Oil is an important source of export revenue in Canada, and oil prices have a strong correlation with the Canadian dollar quotations.

Oil prices fall as against the background of the uncertain economic situation in the world and investors' concerns about a slowdown in the Eurozone economy and oil consumption in the region after Brexit.

The volume of oil production in the world remains at the same high level. The proposal is much greater than demand.

The focus of investors today will certainly be published in the 12:30 (GMT) on the labor market data in the US in June.

It is expected that the number of new jobs created is with non-agricultural sector of the US economy in June increased by 175,000 and the unemployment rate remained below the level of 5.0% (4.8% against 4.7% in May).

If the data are confirmed or will be better than expected, including data on the hourly wage, it will strengthen the US dollar, as revive the market expectations of an early rate hike next.

However, if the data on the US labor market published today will be worse than expected, this would entail the sale of the US dollar, including the pair USD / CAD. A little later (at 13:30 GMT) published data on the labor market in Canada. It is expected that the increased number of Canadian jobs in June, only 5,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.0% from 6.9%. Most likely, the Canadian dollar will ignore the data on the labor market in Canada. The main impetus in the pair USD / CAD is expected today from data on US NFP.