AUD / USD: the trade deficit narrowed _03/03/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7320. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7100, 0.6975, 0.6950, 0.6910, 0.6860, 0.6810

Buy Stop 0.7360. Stop-Loss 0.7320. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7415, 0.7510


Technical analysis

Growth pair AUD / USD stopped today near the mark 0.7325 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Further growth in anticipation of Friday's NFP will be difficult.

On indicators of the 4-hour chart are beginning to unfold in short positions, and the price is at the upper boundary of the rising channel. Further dynamics of couples will also depend on the emerging US and Australian data, as well as fluctuations in oil prices, gas and other commodities. In case of breaking the resistance 0.7325 price level may rise to levels of 0.7415 (EMA50 on the weekly chart), 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci level).

To return to the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower boundary near the level of 0.6600 is necessary to pass the price support levels 0.7225 (EMA144), 0.7140 (EMA50 daily chart).

First the far end, in this case, would be the level of 0.6910 (mid downtrend channel on the daily chart and Fibonacci level 0% correction to the last wave of decrease in pair from July 2014). The distant target - 0.6600 (the lower bound of the downtrend channel on the daily chart), 0.6350, 0.6000 (lows 2008 - 2009).


Overview and Dynamics

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics today presented data according to which, the foreign trade deficit of the country in January fell more than expected (-2.937 billion Australian dollars vs. -3.100 and -3.524 billion in December). Exports rose by 1.0%.

Rising oil and gas prices, as well as other commodities, particularly iron ore, give Australian dollar upward momentum. Today the pair AUD / USD also rose during trading in Asia and Europe.

Coming recent positive data from Australia show excessive fears of a slowdown of the economy. GDP grew by 3.0% (vs. 2.6% and growth of 2.7% in the previous quarter) in Q4, reducing fears of a recession in Australia. If the price of oil, gas, iron ore and exports of these products continue to rise, the Australian trade deficit will continue to decline due to increase in export proceeds.

Earlier in the week, Belarus Australia left interest rates unchanged at 2.0%. Managing bank Glenn Stevens noted that the labor market risks are restrained and low inflation close to the target range.

Today from 13:30 to 15:30 (GMT) waiting for data from the US, among them - the index of business activity in the services sector and a component of the US index, the level of manufacturing orders in January. If the data come out better than expected, the dollar will grow in the market, including in the pair AUD / USD.