EUR/USD: waiting two important meetings _15/04/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Targets 1.1200, 1.1140, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.0870, 1.0750

Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1270. Targets 1.1340, 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1700


Technical analysis

Technical indicators on the daily chart, the pair moved to the side of the sellers. Break of the support level 1.1240 will create conditions for further decline in the pair EUR / USD.

Securing the higher the level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) could return in a couple of upward trend within the channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level of 1.1460.

From a technical point of view, the EUR / USD tends to further decline.

Support levels: 1.1240, 1.1200, 1.1140, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0870, 1.0750

Resistance levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1375, 1.1460


Overview and Dynamics

According to the data released today, the trade balance in the euro area deteriorated in February for the year (20.2 billion euros against 21.2 billion in the previous month). Along with other macroeconomic data presented previously, this confirms the deterioration of the trade and economic environment and can add arguments in favor of further expansion of QE programs in the Eurozone.

The consumer price index in the euro area, released yesterday, showed in March a zero annual increase. Left earlier in the week on industrial production data were also negative, worse than forecast in February and showed amplification of negative dynamics (-0.8% vs. -0.7%). The ECB's efforts to support the growth of inflation and the euro area economy remain ineffective, which could give the European Central Bank more determined to further expand the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. How many times previously stated key representatives of the ECB management, if prospects worsen, "lower interest rates will be one of the possible options." However, even mentioned the famous statement of the former head of the Bernanke Fed's "dumping money from a helicopter".

Given the upcoming weekend important events (G20 representatives meeting and a meeting of representatives of the largest oil producing shit in Doha), EUR / USD pair may stay until Monday in a narrow corridor between the levels 1.1285, 1.1240. Nevertheless, given the unpredictability of the results of the meeting and the decisions taken, it is recommended towards the end of the trading day to close trading positions.