USD / CHF: US Dollar is rising _02/03/2016

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9980. Targets 1.0100, 1.0125, 1.0195, 1.0260

Sell ​​Stop 0.9940. Stop-Loss 0.9980. Targets 0.9900, 0.9880, 0.9820


Technical analysis

At all time periods, from 1-hour to the week, the price is higher than the significant level of support, expressed EMA200 line.

On the daily chart indicators OsMA and Stochastic recommend buying. On 4-hour chart indicators do not provide clear signals and the situation is more like a flat. Breakthrough levels of 0.9960 (EMA50 daily chart EMA200 on 4-hour chart), and 1.0000 in one direction or another will determine the future direction of prices in the short term.

In the medium term the same as the price is above the support levels 0.9880 (EMA144), 0.9820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), preferable long positions.

Support levels: 0.9960, 0.9900, 0.9880, 0.9820

Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0125, 1.0195, 1.0200, 1.0260


Overview and Dynamics

Positive economic data coming recently from the United States, contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar throughout the market and the growth of the pair USD / CHF.

Strong indicators of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US, the acceleration of inflation in February, consumer confidence and GDP in the 4th quarter turned out better than expected (1.0% vs. 0.4%) and other data support a sustainable recovery of the US economy.

On the other hand, economic conditions deteriorated in Switzerland. Published earlier the ZEW economic expectations index, which assesses the business climate, the employment situation in the market and other aspects of the current state of the economy in Switzerland, for February came out with a reduction in value (-5.9 in addition to the negative value of -3.0 in January). The high exchange rate helps to reduce exports from the country and the flow of tourists to Switzerland. According to the SNB franc is still significantly overvalued, which prevents the growth of the Swiss economy and the acceleration of inflation in the country. The position of the SNB and its possible unexpected intervention to trading on a Swiss franc currency market sales growth and restrain the franc attach pair USD / CHF upward momentum. The next meeting of the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy will take place on 17 March. And all the attention of traders will focus on Friday when at 13:30 (GMT) will be published data on the labor market in the US this week (NFP - the number of new jobs created in the US non-farm).

If the data will be positive, the US dollar also strengthened throughout the market, including in the pair USD / CHF.