USD/CHF: in anticipation of Janet Yellen speech _29/03/2016

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop 0.9785. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Targets 0.9810, 0.9860, 0.9900, 1.0000

Sell ​​Stop 0.9710. Stop-Loss 0.9760. Targets 0.9670, 0.9600, 0.9575


Technical analysis

On the weekly chart indicators is still located on the side of the sellers. On the daily chart - a clear signal from the indicators is also no.

On the 4-hour chart the pair USD / CHF is at the resistance level of 0.9750, which passes through the upper boundary of the descending channel, as well as the line of the moving average EMA50. OsMA and Stochastic indicators are deployed on long positions. In case of breaking this level the next major resistance levels for the pair return to the upward trend in the medium-term 0.9810 (EMA200) perform, 0.9860 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Therefore, a lot will depend on news drivers. The first important of them will be today's speech of the Fed Janet Yellen at 18:20 (GMT + 2).

If there will be no speech D.Yellen signals the possibility of a rate hike in April or in June, the dollar fell across the financial markets. The pair USD / CHF in this case will go to support levels 0.9670 (February and March lows), 0.9575 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.9670, 0.9600, 0.9575

Resistance levels: 0.9750, 0.9810, 0.9860


Overview and Dynamics

Swiss National Bank did not change key interest rates in March. Today deposit rate was 0.75%, and the target range for the 3-month interest rate of LIBOR - in the range of -1.25% to -0.25%.

As pointed out in the SNB is expected gradual acceleration of economic growth and

if necessary, the central bank will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange sales to the Swiss franc market.

In Switzerland itself is still observed decrease in inflation. Thus, the index of producer prices and import prices in February fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month and by 4.6% compared to February of the previous year.

Tomorrow will be published important indicators: consumption indicator, which reflects the level of new car sales, the level of activity in the retail sector, the number of nights booked in hotels in Switzerland, the level of consumer confidence and the volume of credit card transactions (published at 06:00 GMT) and the index of leading indicators KOF which is considered an indicator of economic stability in Switzerland (published at 07:00).

If the indicators will be worse than the previous values, it is once again point to a slowdown in economic development in Switzerland and the reduction of domestic consumption, which in turn has a negative impact on the growth of inflation in the country.

Today, as we approach the planned speech by Fed Janet Yellen (16:20 GMT), there is increase in the dollar in relation to safe-haven assets and the pair USD / CHF.

When made at last week's comments of a number of Fed officials about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in the US among investors strengthens a positive attitude to the dollar. With rising interest rates in US dollar investment attractiveness increases. If D.Yellen also points to the possibility of raising interest rates in April or in June, the strengthening of the US dollar will be developed in the financial market.

Emerging picture suggests further growth of the pair USD / CHF until April 27, when the Fed's meeting will take place, subject to the receipt of appropriate signals D.Yellen.